This blog first appeared on PubAffairs
Immediately after elections, winning parties, even one returning for another term, are meant to be riding on a wave, issuing positive announcement after positive announcement showing how they are turning their manifesto pledges in to actions.
For the SNP that was certainly the case in 2007, the last time they formed a minority government, when they went so far as to take a leaf out of US President FDR’s book and make a big show of progress after their first 100 days in office. This time, however, things seem different. Rather than positive announcements, the SNP seems to have been fire-fighting and playing defence.
Just this week we’ve had (you might want to take a breath): Minister defending delays of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments to Scottish Farmers; education statistics showing a reduction in those from the poorest backgrounds going to university as well as a decline in standards of literacy and numeracy standards; an acknowledgement of the need to “refresh” guidance on the controversial “Named Person” legislation aimed at protecting vulnerable children; a review of NHS targets and, just yesterday, confirmation that the new Forth Road crossing will not be open in December as initially thought.
This is in addition to last week’s controversial debate when the Scottish Government lost a vote on an opposition motion to ban fracking after SNP MSPs abstained despite many candidates being elected on a platform supporting a ban only a few weeks before.
So, have the SNP suddenly imploded, are we seeing the quickest post-election collapse of a government in history? Well, of course not. This is a government and party that remains hugely popular and united, has just been returned as by far the biggest party at Holyrood and is on course to enjoy yet another election victory in the council elections in May 2017. So what is going on?
Well, a lot of the information published this week is on issues extensively debated during the election. There have been accusations announcements were delayed before the election for political reasons, accusations which now appear to have some credence. However, no governing party in its right mind would put out bad news immediately before an election if it didn’t have to so you could argue the SNP were quite sensible to sit on their comfortable lead for the 6 months before polling day.
Instead I suspect the reason this information is no coming out in what seems like a near constant steam is an elongated version of “Take out the Trash Day”, well known to us West Wing geeks. By getting all of the bad news out the way now, immediately after the election when, frankly, voters aren’t watching, it is unlikely they will remember it the next time polling day comes around in less than 12 months.
However, that strategy works if the government takes the summer to start to fix some of these problems, otherwise the bad news drags on and on and could become more embedded in the minds of voters. So, I would expect announcements over the summer break and immediately after about remedial action being taken. Equally, I suspect a few extra Bills are being hurriedly added to the first Legislative Statement which will take place shortly after recess.
If that doesn’t happen then maybe, just maybe, someone can write an article about stalled agendas, appearing cracks and incompetence growing but I wouldn’t get those metaphors dusted off just yet.