The climate of your audience

In watching some of the videos from the last few climate change protests in Edinburgh, London and elsewhere, it was easy to see some examples of good campaigning and effective stunts for media attention. A large Octopus is never not going to get you coverage and neither is a fire engine spraying an old building red. Even protests at London City Airport can get you the kind of attention you want.Graeme Downie, Orbit Director

With that kind of stunt, you are going to be asked for your more substantial views and reasoning, to showcase your knowledge, agenda and programme to make real change and grow an actual movement. In short, it creates the opportunity but the stunt should not be the end in itself.

But, as with many campaigns, the stunt becomes the objective and you feel you have to “do something new” and “go further” rather than looking at why the first thing worked and what it enabled you to do.

The footage this morning of commuters in London dragging XR protestors off a tube, following the blocking of train stations and bus stations are where protestors have lost sight of their audience and purpose. The people being inconvenienced are, afterall, doing what XR wants to see more of – using public transport. Because of public transport conditions, they are also likely to support more money being spent on it to improve the service.

I would be willing to bet that if you polled these commuters they would also support more effective action to tackle climate change. These are the people who agree with you and you want to bring to your campaign. They are your audience, why are you abusing them and treating them as the enemy? Sure, you will get coverage and attention but it will not grow your support nor will it advance your objectives, quite the opposite.

This is common in PR and political campaigns, the base or client demands more but forgets the long-term objective and who the audience is. At Orbit, this is something we combat by asking clients to focus on three simple questions at all times during campaigns and if a particular activity is going to help our longer-term objective. Who is our audience? How do we reach them? What do we want them to do?

Activity for the sake of activity may look appealing but forget your audience at your peril if you want to achieve anything.

Crisis? What Crisis?

Thatcher in 1990, Callaghan in 1979.  Two British Prime Ministers who thought that being seen to ‘get on with the job’ was the best way to handle political difficulties at home.  Perhaps it is fitting therefore that Boris Johnson is also out of the country, presumably in part for the same reason.

When the unanimous judgement of the UK Supreme Court was handed down this morning.  The court’s ruling, that there was no reason, let alone a justifiable one, to prorogue Parliament and that the UK Government acted illegally, was as damning in its judgement as it was surprising in its clarity.

As with much of what has happened with Brexit, it is impossible to guess what might happen next.  Immediate calls for his resignation from all sides are predictable, but it is likely that whilst in the New York, the Prime Minister might follow the advice of “America’s Boris” and stick it out, at least in the short term.

What the Opposition chooses to do next will be critical in that determination.  With the media narrative clearly building up to the decision today though it was with a chronic lack of perspective, but entirely unsurprising, that Labour Conference chose to continue petty squabbles and fudge positions.  A clear clarion call this morning of its position would have further increased the pressure but has not yet materialised.   Strong, visual action today could still salvage the situation, but whether the party is capable of that or cedes that group to the SNP, Lib Dems and others remains to be seen.

The guesswork will continue over the coming hours, days and weeks but I suspect the news from the Big Apple will echo both Callaghan and Thatcher, “Crisis? What Crisis?” and “No, No, No.”

2018 promises to be yet another rollercoaster year ahead

As 2018 gets into full swing, much like 2017 Scottish politics is likely to be shaped primarily by two big issues: the terms of Brexit and its consequences for IndyRef2.

Managing   Director,     Alex Orr

One advantage for us, the voters, is that there will be a year of relative peace on the doorstep, as for the first time since 2013 the year ‘may’ (emphasis on ‘may’) pass without a referendum or national election being staged.

On the key issue of whether Ms Sturgeon will decide to press ahead with IndyRef2, given the electoral bloody nose the party received at the snap general election in 2017, the First Minister will undoubtedly keep the powder dry on her intentions until later in the year, when the nature of the Brexit transition deal becomes clearer. On this more later.

One other big political set-piece is due to take place in the opening months of 2018 is the publication of the SNP’s Growth Commission report into the finances of an independent Scotland. Designed to lay the groundwork for another vote, it will make a series of crucial recommendations about the currency the country might use and how it might grow its economy.

After a decade in power attention will focus on how the minority SNP administration is using its devolved powers, with a specific focus on health, education, and income tax changes. Outlined in the Draft Scottish Budget last month this highlighted modest tax rises for higher earners and cuts for low income Scots.

However, while SNP difficulties seem certain, it is unclear which party, if any, will be the beneficiary.

Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson may have enjoyed electoral success, through making the pro-Union cause her own, but none of her achievements have been on domestic policy.

She should be able to use income tax rises to her advantage, but peak Tory may have been reached and Davidson’s party looks close to the upper limit of support amongst voters.

This time last year, the Scottish Labour Party seemed near to extinction, but in the snap general election it increased its MP presence and on paper its leader, Richard Leonard, has the most to gain from a year that could see Sturgeon and Davidson fight out a bloody score draw.

While IndyRef 2 seems a blur on the horizon, the implications of Brexit will keep the constitution in the foreground of political debate at Holyrood.

A stand-off looms between the Scottish and UK Governments on the transfer of powers after Brexit. During the year it is likely that the Scottish Government and the UK will finally do a deal on the EU Withdrawal Bill, which will repatriate thousands of EU laws back to Britain. The big question of 2018, of course, is whether Ms Sturgeon will decide to press ahead with IndyRef2 – and whether the UK will give its permission for another vote.

If it does happen, it is likely to be during the two-year Brexit transition period which begins in March 2019. The SNP’s mandate for another vote lasts until the next Scottish election in 2021.

Whatever happens, 2018 is likely to prove yet another rollercoaster year politically north of the border.

School’s out for summer

Sarah Robertson Orbit Communications 04
Sarah Robertson, Account Executive:  LinkedIn

Yesterday (29th June) was the last FMQs of this school year and as of today our MSPs are off on an enviably long summer break. So, what better time than now to look back on the last 12 months and see what an end of term political report card might look like.

The wider political world’s record over the past 12 months consists of U-turns galore, plenty of pre-Brexit peacocking, the (unfortunate) meteoric rise of a certain Mr Trump who has singlehandedly saved Twitter’s stock from circling the drain, and a Jeremy Corbyn speech that drew the biggest crowd to Glastonbury’s Pyramid Stage since the Rolling Stones in 2013.

The Scottish Government has faced some testing times during which Ms Sturgeon, as always, has remained personable. Maybe that’s why Nicola-bot just isn’t quite as catchy as May-bot. Over the last 12 months our First Minister has come across as, dare I say it, strong and stable in increasingly fractious and uncertain times. That being said, her record closer to home might not look so shiny.

The loss of the SNP’s majority certainly brought a new dynamic to Scottish politics and Ms Sturgeon’s government regularly received a bloody nose from opposition benches on issues such as education and healthcare.

Opposition parties have highlighted Nicola’s pledge made back in 2015 to put closing the attainment gap front and centre. Last year she made John Swinney, her most trusted minister, Cabinet Secretary for Education to prove to sceptics that she was serious. However, the Tories, Labour, and Lib Dems have found it relatively easy to throw punches at the government, drawing on Scotland’s sliding literacy and numeracy standards, our widening – not closing – attainment gap, as well as the delayed Education Bill.

On healthcare, the issue of low and stagnated pay has bitten the government where it hurts, and long waiting times for things like access to mental health services have proved troublesome hurdles for the SNP administration to navigate. While over the years these issues have been rumbling in the background, it seems they have begun to come to a head and the public have started to ask, with all the extra powers the Scottish Government now has, why things aren’t improving.

A glaring blemish on the SNP’s report card, and something that Nicola will no doubt be reflecting on over the summer holidays, is her party’s loss of 21 seats in the General Election. There is no doubt that this result has influenced her U-turn on indyref2 and it is evident there is growing doubt amongst party ranks as to whether Independence, for now, is a good idea.

Only yesterday, on the last day of term, a report by the Fraser of Allander Institute said Scotland’s economy is “likely to continue to lag behind the UK.” While opposition parties have used this to berate the government, and ministers have said the fundamentals of the Scottish economy remain strong, it is clear that whatever side of the political spectrum you sit, the summer probably won’t be the relaxing break some had hoped. Will any of the party leaders take Alice Cooper’s words literally? I can think of one south of the border who might.

“Out for summer, out for fall. We might not go back at all.”